# UN report warns 1.5C climate threshold breach is imminent

- Topic: science
- Source: [Positive News](https://www.positive.news/environment/were-likely-to-breach-1-5c-what-happens-next-is-still-in-our-hands/)
- Published: 2026-09-07
- Original: https://www.positive.news/environment/were-likely-to-breach-1-5c-what-happens-next-is-still-in-our-hands/
- Language: en
- Image: https://www.positive.news/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ice.jpg

## At a glance

- The UNEP predicts the 1.5C warming threshold will likely be exceeded within the next few years.
- Current global policies could lead to 2.6C of warming by 2100, compared to 1.8C under ambitious scenarios.
- Climate scientists stress that avoiding even tenths of a degree can significantly mitigate environmental destruction.
- Returning to lower temperatures requires both deep fossil fuel emission cuts and large-scale carbon dioxide removal.

## Sources

- [Positive News](https://www.positive.news/environment/were-likely-to-breach-1-5c-what-happens-next-is-still-in-our-hands/)

## The story

A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests that the global community is likely to breach the 1.5C warming threshold established by the Paris Agreement within the next few years. While sustained warming is currently estimated at 1.4C, the UNEP Limiting Overshoot report indicates that crossing this critical limit is becoming unavoidable.

The findings describe an overshoot, peak, and decline pathway. Under this model, temperatures would rise above the 1.5C mark before peaking and eventually falling if humanity successfully achieves net-zero emissions and utilizes carbon removal technologies. The report highlights a stark contrast between potential outcomes: ambitious climate action could limit peak warming to 1.8C by mid-century, whereas current policies place the world on a trajectory toward 2.6C of warming by 2100.

Experts emphasize that breaching the threshold is not a point of no return. Scientists note that every fraction of a degree avoided reduces the scale of environmental damage, such as the loss of ice sheets and biodiversity. However, the report warns that carbon removal cannot replace the urgent need for deep emissions cuts, as some damage from an overshoot may be irreversible.

> Summary by Daily Read Bytes. [Read the original source](https://www.positive.news/environment/were-likely-to-breach-1-5c-what-happens-next-is-still-in-our-hands/)